Blog: Mattress sales outlook a mix of positive, negative factors

There are several reasons why bedding sales should be good right now. Unfortunately, there also are several reasons why they should not be so good now.

The problem is, these conflicting issues are canceling one another out. It’s sort of like a football team with a great offense being stymied by another team with a great defense.

This is the reality we are facing these days in Mattressville, and it’s one that brings with it a large set of questions. How many? Our recent Bedding Conference webinar with GoodBed.com CEO Mike Magnuson, which looked at how COVID-19 is changing the retail landscape, sparked 30 questions from attendees, several of them focused on what the future looks like.

I asked Magnuson about one vision for the future that is making the rounds in the industry these days. It’s the one reflected in the opening sentence in this column, in which I mention several reasons why sales should be good now.

Among those reasons: COVID-19 has brought about the ultimate staycations. Consumers are canceling expensive travel. They aren’t eating out at expensive restaurants. They aren’t spending their money on expensive concerts and sporting events. So they have money to spend, and as they shelter in place, they have a new appreciation of the really important things in their life, such as a good, supportive mattress for themselves and a good mattress for their in-laws, children, etc., who are at home with them.

Now all of that may be true, but it runs into another reality, as Magnuson noted in his answer to my question. He said those factors could spur mattress spending, but only if consumers have jobs, which a growing number of Americans don’t have.

And this is the other side of the coin, the idea that consumer confidence has been badly damaged by the COVID-19 crisis. About eight in 10 consumers responding to a Raymond James survey in April said they plan to reduce their level of discretionary spending. We know that jobless rates are soaring. And we also know that mattresses are a very deferrable purchase.

I asked a bedding veteran for his take on these issues, and he provided a thoughtful overview of the issues at play.

“We know from the past that consumers buy more beds when they are flush and are positive about the future,” he said. “When disposable income is good, consumers feel good about their assets (stocks, retirement accounts, etc.), and the when housing market is strong, bedding sales are usually strong.  But now income and assets have been hit, and housing sales are at least temporarily off.”

His prediction for the future: “If the pandemic restrictions end relatively soon, then maybe we can approach normal quickly. But the longer it takes, the worse it is for us.”

It’s hard to argue with that view. And no one really knows what the next few months hold for the mattress industry.