As we near the halfway point of the year, it’s time to take an early look at bedding’s prospects in 2020.
The outlook is mixed, with skies darkened by a “disturbing” presidential election, as one leading industry observer puts it, but with enough sunshine from favorable economic factors to give us a year of domestic bedding growth. That would be a big deal.
My friends at the International Sleep Products Assn. prompted this look ahead with their recent release of a forecast for bedding performance this year and next year.
The ISPA forecast sees domestic mattress unit and dollar growth next year, of 0.5% and 2% respectively, which would be a nice break from the domestic mattress declines of recent years. (ISPA sees domestic mattress units declining 0.5% this year, with mattress dollars rising a modest 1%.)
But first we will need to survive a presidential election that Jerry Epperson fearlessly predicts will be “so disturbing and in such bad taste” that it will be covered by the media around the world.
In case anyone needs a reminder of the difficulties of doing business in a presidential election year, Epperson reminds us that media costs will be inflated by the election, challenging retailers to find affordable ways to attract consumers. And he also notes, in his commentary with the ISPA forecast, that consumers of both parties will be distracted by the election circus.
But before we get too depressed, let’s also consider some positives. Epperson says income gains continue to be good, household formations are picking up, new home construction looks good, and the stock market has been a plus for consumers. Those factors, and a few others, suggest that better mattress days lie ahead in 2020, in his view.
Furniture Today won’t issue its 2020 mattress forecast until early next year, but I would note that a look at the ISPA history books says we shouldn’t be too alarmed about next year’s presidential election.
The 2016 presidential election year, which saw the rise of Donald Trump, was the last year of domestic bedding growth, according to ISPA’s statistics.
That year, domestic bedding units were up 3.1%, while the dollar value of domestic bedding shipments grew 3.4%.
The domestic bedding industry hit the skids in 2017 and 2018. Domestic units dipped 4.4% in 2017 and 2.4% last year, while domestic dollars were off 2% in 2017 and 1.7% last year.
That slump was fueled by the rise of bedding imports, market share gains by bedding e-tailers and disruption in the retail marketplace, among other factors.
The bedding industry remains in a state of dramatic changes, and we would expect that to continue to be the case next year.
But — and this is comforting news — history tells us that a Trump election year can be a year of domestic bedding growth, however crazy the election season may become.
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